Straight Out of Vancouver

Spring Eternal

2009-07-21T20:54:00.001-04:00

The move is being made to SB Nation. I'm officially calling a moratorium on all posts on this page.

The last post will be a link to the new site once it's up and running.

The Fall

2009-07-19T21:40:00.003-04:00

Summer League is officially over, with the Summer League Grizzlies defeating the Summer League Spurs 76-75. Marcus Williams hit the final layup with about a half second left to get the win, as he and Sam Young took the majority of the shots in the final minutes. Lets get to the bullets:

DeMarre Carroll impressed again this game, even snagging the post-game interview. I counted four steals, though he only got three in the box score. He defended George Hill on their final possession and held the sneaky, experienced point guard in check until a big screen came his way. He was active every minute on the court. On the down side Carroll finishes with the ball low under the basket, using sneaky moves like circus layups to finish given his lacking height and stand still hops. Lots of the shots he drops in these summer leagues will be swatted into the upper bowl by great weakside shotblockers like J-Smoove and Dwight.
Jeff Adrien wasn't great on offense tonight, but he rebounded well and brought a ton of energy. I like the kid, and think he would be great to lock up for a couple years with a minimum salary. He's really quick, not unlike Darrell Arthur. They will provide good practice buddies for each other.
My best buddy Thabeet doesn't get the final bullet tonight. He played a pretty solid game tonight. Didn't show any more or any less than the other games. Just to remind everyone, his offense is at least as bad as advertised. Doesn't seem to have much of a motor; not a particularly impressive effort out there.
Haddadi backed up Thabeet well enough. He was basically as effective as Thabeet when on the court. Needs to learn to play far harder.
Marcus Williams looked pretty solid again. His risky passes finally caught up to him and he picked up a bunch of TOs tonight. I knew it was going to happen given how many were getting deflected. He was relatively poised down the stretch and hit the game winner, though he also took some TERRIBLE looks. His three point form is really poor. He fades away almost constantly and in all kinds of directions for basically no reason.
Sam Young was tonight's most notable. He really scored well. Really sneaky skills in isolation, Young reminds me a lot of a younger Paul Pierce. While nobody actually projects that kind of upside to him, he has that sneakily skilled game. Always knows where his opponents hands are, and when he pulls up on jumpers they're almost never challenged. Not quite as crafty when driving though. Young's move are lacking when he's attacking the rim; he normally just tries to go over the top, which he doesn't do particularly effectively.

Tomorrow I'll come back with some overall Summer League thoughts, but I'll admit I'm obviously pretty happy with the Grizzlies 5-0 showing.

Above the Influence

2009-07-19T12:28:00.002-04:00

Scott Cacciola wrote an excellent article on Zach Randolph in the Commercial Appeal today. It included lots of stuff I'd never even heard, and is certainly worth a read.

Also, if you're still wondering, yes, you should be terrified for OJ Mayo. Gay, Conley, Carroll, Sam Young and Thabeet should be alright, I think, but I could see OJ attending one or two of the famed Z-bo suburbia block parties. Sam Young's two talents outside of basketball are poetry reading and piano. There is no information to back Mayo up, yet I'm terrified, he has had some character questions in the past at USC and while a mini-celebrity during his high school days. Mayo strikes me as somewhat similar to Randolph in that way; everyone who knows him sings his praises, but those who don't worry about his behavior.

Oh well, he's only around for two years anyhow. Right? Right...

Playing the Right Way

2009-07-18T21:48:00.002-04:00

Summer League Grizzlies killed the Summer League Suns today. Absolute obliteration, 97-60. And again, I will be supplying bullet notes, but no stat lines because Summer League stats don't matter.

Sam Young scored sneaky well tonight, killing it on the wings of the break, but struggling in the half court. I don't think he's comfortable playing on the perimeter constantly, since in college ball he was more of a 3/4 than a 2/3. Dribbles with his head down though, which is not a good thing.
Carroll got a lot of minutes today. He has a little hop in his step that I like to see. A winner for sure, but showed questionable shot selection. I think he might be the glue guy for the Summer Grizzlies, but can't tell. Body language is always positive. Not as good of a dunker as I thought he would be though.
Thabeet logged a bunch of minutes today too. Looked modestly better, but missed two dunks with the monstrous (6'6") Taylor Griffin on him. Seems to be getting pretty frustrated with his play this week, but I don't know that he has the skills to do any better at this point. Seems to be struggling without a clear "system" in place like college ball had at UConn, especially on defense. Not comfortable at all.
Marcus Williams played pretty well, but still looked for his own shot a little too often to really fit the "pass-first" profile. Then again, everyone looks for their own shot in summer league (see DeMarre Carroll). In all these games he is lucking out keeping his TO count down, lots of his passes are getting deflected but ending up in Grizz hands. I think I would prefer him to Anthony Carter; the announcers said lock him up for 3 years for 6 million, I'll cosign that contract.
Haddadi was pretty impressive in limited minutes yet again. He is really ambidextrous, Chris Wallace said its because he lost feeling in his right arm for awhile because of an injury while in Iran. Good finesse, he's like a more imposing Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but minus the range jumper.
Jeff Adrien, undrafted out of UConn, was in for a bunch of minutes because of Darrell Arthur sitting with injury precautions. He could be a roster filler this year, kind of like a crappy DeMarre Carroll, but will be a hard worker.

A Woman Spurned

2009-07-17T19:34:00.003-04:00

Hasheem Thabeet not even in David Thorpe's top 14 rookies to watch in the upcoming season.

Sadly, I think he just might be right.

Untouchable

2009-07-17T11:20:00.002-04:00

Again, not like Summer League scores mean anything but the Grizzlies won another contest 85-68 last night against the Clippers, led by Blake Griffin. I'd like to stress here that Summer League box scores don't really mean anything, because you have no clue who was defending who, what kind of talent they were on the floor with, and all kinds of other variables that involve non-NBA players.

So again I'm going to avoid giving any sort of box score style recap. If you want that look at the box score above and imagine one. Instead I'm going to drop a quick list of thoughts from the game, which will include more Thabeet slamming, but start with another top pick:

Blake Griffin is an extremely skilled player. He caught a bit of a bad rap for being raw or relying too much on his athleticism, but I don't see it. He played the Summer League like it was a real game, deferring to his teammates, playing great defense, getting his points without needing set plays. Also his handles are quite good already, and I have no doubt that they'll continue to improve. He is much better than Michael Beasley.
DeMarre Carroll looked excellent again, whenever he got action just in the flow of the offense or on the break he looked great. But like Griffin it's not like he forced anything and played the Summer League like it was a real game. He finished creatively around the rim and did the little things. I have no doubt he will be an excellent rotation player this season.
Sam Young, on the other hand, is difficult to get a bead on because he seems to be forcing things. This wasn't manifested in the box score for some reason, but despite only having 1 turnover he really looked out of control. Also he doesn't seem to have a great sense of how the defense is going to shift and move based on his own actions. Not as smart as he should be at 24, I can see some of the concerns that made him slide on draft day. Will still be a serviceable sub over the course of the season though.
Marcus Williams might have put up a killer stat line but he didn't look great or even NBA ready. Barely passed the ball, settled for fading threes with 15 seconds on the shot clock, looked for his own shot to a fault. Mike Taylor might have sent him to the line 20 times, but a real NBA point guard wouldn't be so foolish. I would venture to guess even Mike Taylor wouldn't foul him 9 times in a real game. Rumor has Anthony Carter coming to Memphis for the veteran's minimum because he'll be losing minutes with Denver picking up Ty Lawson. I would certainly advocate the steady, experienced Carter over Williams, who doesn't seem to have figured out that his game is as a pass-first guard.
Darrell Arthur looked like nothing this game, still quick I suppose. He was playing against Blake Griffin pretty often, however, which would be a tough matchup for lots of young power forwards in the league. Arthur did have one nasty dunk in transition.
I liked the look of Haddadi again, but he's not ready for more than 10 minutes a night. Still his passing tools are there, which is an interesting skill. He just needs more experience to get the vision to couple with the skills. Turns the ball twice as often as he makes a fantastic pass, but at least he is making fantastic passes, unlike...
Hasheem Thabeet looked terrible again, he is a project. Sorry, there is no other way to put it, but Thabeet is not going to be ready to contribute unless he travels to the Joshua Tree and "finds himself" later this summer. The kid just has no basketball skills. Both Chris Wallace and Rudy Gay stepped into the booth to provide a fun guest for the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively. Wallace tried to defend Thabeet as a valuable asset this season, but Rudy knew better and openly admitted that his UConn buddy is still extremely raw to contribute. I'm not terribly worried because Gasol is still a solid starter for what the Grizzlies want to do these next few seasons, but Tyreke Evans, Rubio, Harden, Curry or even guys like Terrence Williams and Jennings would have been better options.

Championship Appeal

2009-07-14T19:43:00.002-04:00

If summer league is any indication of real success, the Grizzlies are readied for a storied season this year. Of course summer league isn't any indication of real success, but is still modestly amusing and can tell you something about the young players on the floor. Seconds ago the Grizzlies beat the Knicks 90-86 in what was perhaps the closest thing to playground basketball I'll watch on my computer all year.

I liked the point-by-point format I used earlier in the day, so here are a few more points:

Darrell Arthur looked very quick and effective on the defensive end, as well as the offensive end of the floor at times. He was very comfortable, but often too comfortable, and was taking spot-up jumpers at near college 3-point range. Needless to say he missed almost every single one, but his speed and athleticism were encouraging.
Marcus Williams didn't look nearly as interested in facilitating tonight, with only 5 assists and 5-15 from the field. He took over the game in the final minutes, though I'm not sure it was a good thing.
Sam Young got off to a decent start but struggled and often looked lost.
Ditto for Carroll. These two players are much more similar than I thought they would be, always looking to drive and having questionable floor vision. They both run shamelessly, but don't know when to pull back and set up the offense.
Carroll and Young's handles both looked better than advertised, however, and they may be struggling because of the lack of organization.
Haddadi looked capable again, and his passing showed special promise. Rebounded and defended solidly, might actually have the second worst post game behind...

No room for a bullet point here, this is an all-out rant. Hasheem Thabeet again looked terrible in a league he SHOULD be dominating as the #2 pick overall in this year's draft. Jordan Hill routinely dominated him in the post despite being undersized, Thabeet couldn't extend on anyone, and his offense was absolutely terrible. Yes, occasionally he flashed an acceptable move, but more often than not he was nowhere near finishing. On top of that, he regularly mistimed his rebounding or failed to box anyone out. Thabeet is quick for his size and can jump, but so could another player in this game, Mouhamed Sene, who Thabeet barely outplayed.

I really don't see Thabeet making any impact this season. He's just not a professional basketball player. His rebounding is terrible, and he looks like he's playing highschool basketball when he tries to block shots at this level, barely jumping but still waving his arm the full way down. When you're 7'3" the goal isn't to block the ball in someone's hand, it's to predict the shot path and block it around the rim or before it reaches its decline. I don't doubt that this kid has tools, but he has shown me absolutely no game at this point. Even on defense, which was supposed to be his calling card, Thabeet has no identity. I'm not going to damn him yet, but he is beginning to look more like a bust with each passing game.

The Rewatching

2009-07-14T16:51:00.002-04:00

Thabeet's hands looked absolutely terrible.
Sam Young did look very excellent. Dominate to the same degree as Russell Westbrook.
The scores were backwards for much of the web-a-cast.
Darrell Arthur looked very active and quick on defense. Didn't assert himself on offense really, but showed moves that actually looked a lot like Josh Smith inside. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing, really difficult to say.
Marcus Williams should be backup point guard for the Grizzlies this season.
DeMarre Carroll's game was good, but I don't see it translating at the next level until his brain catches up with his body. Much smaller than I expected him to look.
Hamed Haddadi seemed suprisingly confident. A more complete player than Hasheem Thabeet. Also looking filled out and mean.
None of the non-roster filler players looked like they belonged in the NBA, besides Williams of course.

Boys of Summer

2009-07-13T09:46:00.002-04:00

Grizzlies played their first summer league game yesterday, winning 86-57 over the Oklahoma City Thunder. While summer league isn't exactly a fair indicator of real success, it is worth noting that OKC's team is typically recognized as one of the best. Russell Westbrook, Sean Livingston, and James Harden all play for their Las Vegas squad.

Sam Young and DeMarre Carroll both looked excellent, with Carroll playing the 3 and Young at the 2. While Young often was beaten handily by Harden on some isolated instances, one particularly vicious dunk comes to mind, he scored 14 on efficient shooting. Thabeet looked fairly impressive, as did Haddadi. Perhaps most impressive, however, was Marcus Williams, another former UConn player, who dropped 17 dimes in 28 minutes of play. Williams has always been known as a talent around the league, but his skills have never stuck and he is recognized as having character issues. He looked excellent, showing great vision and limiting his turnovers to 1.

So what can we take from this game? Williams will potentially fill the need of backup point guard for Mike Conley, provided Iverson doesn't sign. Sam Young can ball, and seems to have the skills to fill in at the 2, which is a position he would fill with quite a bit of size and rebounding. Also Darrell Arthur showed significant improvements in his isolation game; he has obviously learned quite an array of new moves, and could be much better this season.

Apocalypse

2009-07-08T18:53:00.003-04:00

The Grizzlies are seriously considering signing Iverson to a one-year $5 million deal. Apparently Heisley will be meeting with Iverson sometime in the near future.

This is beginning to sound like an ownership-takes-over personnel situation. Rumor has it that Heisley wanted Thabeet, he got Thabeet. Rumor has it that Heisley wanted Randolph, he got Randolph. Apparently Chris Wallace has been relegated to puppet-role at this point, because he supposedly was interested in Lee and Millsapp, and was against the Randolph trade. One can only assume he isn't a staunch supporter of this move to acquire Iverson, since it makes very little basketball sense at this point.

Mike Conley played poorly when timesharing with Lowry last season, this is absolute fact. Iverson gave up when he was demoted to a 6th man role last season, again, fact. OJ Mayo needs the ball in his hands to be effective. Rudy Gay also needs the ball in his hands to be effective. Allen Iverson really, really needs the ball in his hands. All the time. Zach Randolph will suck the ball up and never give it up after it touches his superglue hands. None of these players are defensive stoppers, and Mayo is probably the closest.

What could this team possibly add up to then? I'm guessing, in an absolute best-case scenario a bastard version of the Iverson Nuggets. Only not as good. The Grizzlies starting lineup will, probably, include Iverson, Mayo, Gay, Randolph, and Thabeet. These are 4 isolation scorers, anchored by a shot blocker. Sound familiar? The problem of course, is that Iverson is now worse than Iverson, Mayo is an improvement over that era's JR Smith, Rudy is far worse than Carmelo, Zbo is perhaps a better scorer than Kenyon but loses almost all his defensive intensity, and Thabeet is not likely to be a DMVP like Camby this season. In other words, your Grizzlies have the upside of getting embarassingly swept in the first round. The worst case? Fireworks at FedEx, which is only one step from Malice at the Palace.

Terror Squad

2009-07-07T11:38:00.003-04:00

Holy Moly, it appears that the Grizzlies have some interest in Boston restricted free agent Glenn "Big Baby" Davis. Why Memphis would have interest in Davis is almost unknown. Big Baby played well in the now legendary Celtics-Bulls first round series, and is apparently now no longer needed in Boston. Lets not forget that he wasn't needed in Boston prior to the Garnett-Powe injuries, has basically played acceptably well for half an NBA season, and been the 5th best starter on a decent playoff team for around a dozen games.

More importantly lets not forget that of the players the Grizzlies have signed for next season, at least 3 are already best suited to play power forward. And if the Grizzlies bring back Hakim Warrick they will have roughly 4 power forwards, assuming DeMarre Carroll contributes at that position next season. Lets also assume that Warrick will be a much cheaper option than Davis, and both are essentially undersized, jump-shooting 4's who are liabilities on defense. The main difference is that Hak can make some electrifying plays and has handles and speed similar to most backup small forwards in the league, though he struggles in one-on-one post defense situations even worse than Big Baby.

In other words, while it isn't out of question that the Grizzlies would be interested in Davis, they almost certainly have no real reason to be interested in him. Davis is almost certainly a far better fit in OKC, San Antonio, or even Sacramento. In fact Big Baby seems to be a better fit for almost every team in the league. If the rumors are true, however, it's almost certain that the Grizzlies will throw the most money at Davis, which would be a collosal mistake.

More, But Not Here

2009-07-06T02:57:00.003-04:00

An excellent collection over at TheGoodPoint.com. I contributed some serious love for my main man Rudy.

Matthew Noe over at 3 Shades of Blue wrote about, I think, the same moment I did, although he came away with a more X's and O's basketball oriented look at it. Very interesting, all of them are worthwhile reads, if only because they're all so short.

Also big ups to Ziller for his shout out to Bobby Jackson. That guy has heart, I couldn't tolerate the fact that he was stuck behind Beno all season long either. Big ups to Natalie Sitto for hating on the Iverson trash in Detroit as well; please keep him as far from Conley and Mayo as possible.

Lastly I just want to warn anyone who is following, this Blogger version of the site might be down sometime this week. I will post a link to the new site.

Never Vacation

2009-07-05T20:59:00.002-04:00

I was on vacation in Maryland this weekend, and returned to stare a gigantic death crab in the face.

I'm not really ready to disparage the prospect of this move at this point in my life. The funny thing is, I was ready like two weeks ago when I wrote a 800 word article over at TheGoodPoint.com about just how irrelevant Iverson has become.

I swear the world is out to get me, first Zach Randolph, now this. Additionally there is no longer a light at the end of the tunnel, I'm too deep into the game now to get out. To my loyal few readers, Straight Out of Vancouver will likely be making the move over to SB Nation sometime this month. That's right, we're almost official now.

Hoping for Retirement

2009-07-02T01:16:00.002-04:00

I would like to point everyone to the good Clippers bloggers over at SportsBlog Nation. They do a good job, and are very in touch with their community and the general fan opinion of the team.

Their first post today was entitled "Don't Expect July Fireworks." Their second post of today was entitled "July Fireworks." The reason why is because the Grizzlies traded for Zach Randolph, who is close to the most maligned player in the sport.

Please take the time to check out some of the comments in the "July Fireworks" post. If you support this move, you're in the good company of every single Clippers fan on Earth. They love it because every Grizzlies fan will soon hate it.

The Real Infinite Sadness

2009-07-01T21:34:00.002-04:00

If you thought overpaying David Lee was bad, the Grizzlies have reportedly traded Quentin Richardson for Zach Randolph. It's not official yet, but generally when a trade is broken to a major publication, it's official. Can I get a moment of silence for any good karma the Grizzlies built with signing and drafting respectable, level-headed free agents in the past?

Randolph, affectionately known as Zbo to those in the NBA know, is a high-scoring power forward who also does his fair share of rebounding work. He is certainly a legitimate NBA starter, but fancies himself a superstar, taking terrible shots to continue to pad his impressive stats. Zbo plays best in the half court offense, though he did fit well in D'Antoni's version of SSOL for the Knicks early last season. He normally shoots around 47% from the field on his career, which is low for a power forward, though he shoots an acceptable 77% from the line. While this seems like an acceptable way to acquire 20+ ppg and 10 rpg, the metrics begin to show why Randolph has such a bad rap around the league.

Despite average good stats, his PER is a relatively low 19.3 on his career. This is partly because of his abhorrently low steal % and block %. Randolph's Offensive Rating is an acceptable 105, but his Defensive Rating is a very poor 110. In other words, he gives up about 5 more points per 100 possessions than he scores. In comparison Marc Gasol had a 112 OR and 108 DR. Randolph's True Shooting % and Effective FG% are also both low at 53% and 49%, respectively. In comparison Marc Gasol's TS% was 59% and his EFG% was 53%. To you non-statheads out there, basically Randolph doesn't have the efficiency of even a middling NBA quality big man. This is primarily because Randolph takes 58% of his shots as jumpers at a 40% clip. Not a good thing, especially when 33% of your attempts are in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.

And all this for the very low price of $33.3 million over the next two seasons! Rest assured there will be plenty more Zbo hate on the way tomorrow!

Infinite Sadness

2009-07-01T12:59:00.002-04:00

According to Yahoo Sports, Memphis is preparing a 40-50 million, 5 year deal for David Lee.

I don't mind Lee, but he is not 10 million a year good. He is probably best suited to be a big-minute backup, around 25 minutes at center and power forward combined, if your team is interested in winning. His 16-12 numbers and massive double-double count was the direct result of taking the court with Chris Duhon, Nate Robinson, Wilson Chandler, and Al Harrington, as well as playing 35 minutes at an unbelievably fast pace.

While pace isn't as important as some believe, the fact that Lee never had a teammate taking a rebound from him does matter. And pace does matter at least a little bit, especially when you consider that while New York was only a bit above average, the Grizzlies play a bit below average in pace factor. In other words, all roster considerations removed, with the Grizzlies Lee is closer to a 14-10 guy, with most teams he is a 15-11 guy, and with the Knicks he was a 16-12 guy. Not exactly the stats you would pay 10 million for, especially given Lee's lack of shot blocking ability.

The One That Got Away Then Got Caught Again

2009-07-01T12:36:00.002-04:00

Carlos Boozer has decided to come back to Utah. Mehmet Okur has decided to come back to Utah. Andre Kirilenko is still in Utah. Utah has vowed to keep Paul Milsap unless the offer is ridiculous. Boozer is happy whereever he gets the most money. Utah is not happy with Boozer, and their management likely wishes he had opted out.

One of these sentences is not as simple as the others. Utah doesn't want Boozer around for about 12.7 million; they seem to think they would be better served without the distractions that seem to follow Carlos Boozer ever since he left Cleveland. They want Milsap to be a starter, which would allow a frontcourt rotation of Okur, his clone Koufos, and Milsap, with AK47 picking up some spot minutes.

The Grizzlies targetted Zach Randolph earlier, as we all know by now, and Randolph is shockingly similar to Boozer. In fact he basically is a less efficient, poorer defender than Boozer. They both rebound in volume, score from out to 18 feet or so, and score well in the post. Both players are no stranger to controversy, and that obviously didn't stop the Grizzlies from targetting Zbo. The biggest difference between the two is that Boozer is a proven winner, a real All-Star, and is cheaper. Sounds a lot like Heisley's madate, no?

So what would it take to spring Boozer from the Jazz? Difficult to say, but they likely would be interested in a combination of some basketball value, cap relief, and an expiring contract. A combination of Buckner's buyout-able contract, and draft picks would likely get it done. They might have to give up some talent like either DeMarre Carroll or Sam Young, but those are small pieces for an affirmed All-star caliber power forward.

Riders on the Storm

2009-06-30T19:03:00.006-04:00

It's coming. Free agency begin tonight at 12:01 a.m. The Grizzlies are commanding significant cap space this summer, though reviews are mixed as to whether the front office intends to drop major cash on a free agent or will stand pat and keep costs relatively low. Regardless of how much Heisley spends, it's almost certain that the Grizzlies will be shopping for two things, either by free agency or trade. According to the Commercial Appeal, they will be targeting a quality, young power forward and a backup point guard. Based on pure speculation, the point is almost certainly going to be a veteran.

Lets take a look at the options available to Memphis in the upcoming shop-till-you-dropathon. These players are in order not by any knowledge of Memphis's interest in them, but by overall quality. This list is roughly equatable to those released by various news sources.

Players likely to accept a backup point guard role: Jarrett Jack, Anthony Carter, Shannon Brown, CJ Watson, Bobby Jackson, Juan Dixon, Brevin Knight, Damon Jones, Sean Singletary

Clearly the point guard position isn't particularly interesting, so lets begin with assessing the prospects here: Jack is ranked 1st, and he is a very skilled scorer. Unfortunatly his passing ability is limited, and he actually performs best with someone else facilitating the offense. With that responsibility out of his hands, Jack scores well on catch-and-shoots and isolation play.

Anthony Carter is an excellent backup point, and has the knowledge of what it takes to win after playing with the Nuggets this season. He does little flashy, but also rarely makes mistakes. Still Carter is likely to remain with Denver.

Brown is similar to Jack, though less refined in his skills and perhaps a even less apt to pass. CJ Watson is also similar though far worse on defense, but with a better three point shot. Jackson and Dixon are both much older versions of the scoring guard.

Finally Knight is another aging backup, but he is still a defensive stalwart. He isn't very good, still I expect the Grizzlies will give him a long look. Jones and Singletary are both quite poor players at this point in their careers, though Singletary is young and shows promise.

Ultimately with Quentin Richardson now around to take all of the second unit's shots, and Conley also already providing scoring from the point the Grizzlies, the Grizz really need a veteran who will stay out of the way and play defense. I could see them making a run at a young player from the D-league or undrafted class, after all that's how cream-of-the-crop Anthony Carter got his job, but only because their list of options is so short.

Players capable of making an impact at power forward (note these players are not all pure power forwards, but can play at the position capably): Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, David Lee, Paul Milsap, Rasheed Wallace, Charlie Villanueva, Anderson Varajeo, Sean Marion, Chris "Birdman" Andersen, Antonio McDyess, Leon Powe, Drew Gooden, Glen "Big Baby" Davis, Brandon Bass, Chris Wilcox, Channing Frye, Joe Smith.

This list might look long, but the real list being considered by the Grizzlies has to be much shorter. Consider what owner Heisley said: "That player must fit the criteria, though, of being young, productive and reasonably priced." That means are will likely limit the list to Okur, Lee, Charlie V, Varajeo, Powe, Big Baby, Bass, and Frye. Odom is a very unlikely possibility as well, as the Lakers might be unable to retain him for a reasonable price if they sign Ariza first. I suppose the others remain possible, but they're much more likely to sign with competitors. Especially Sheed, Marion, McDyess, and Smith. Finally the Grizzlies would likely feel that Davis, Bass, Wilcox, and Frye are no better than Darrell Arthur or DeMarre Carroll. Remember they don't need depth, the Grizzlies need a singular starting talent at the 4.

UPDATE: OKUR DID NOT OPT OUT, AND IS NO LONGER AN OPTION: The #1 option Mehmet Okur is a Turkish player that plays a very European style. His defense is poor, but he has very legit NBA 3-point range. Okur can score and put up around 7-8 rpg, but is more traditionally a center than power forward. I find it very unlikely that Okur will be their choice, even though he may be a value if his contract demands are beneath 10 million. Instead of paying Okur and logjamming the position they could force Gasol into the position.

David Lee is an energy guy and was a double-double machine last year on the Knicks, but his contract will be worth way more than the sum of his talents. This guy seems like a major candidate for being overpaid, and he doesn't bring the scoring the Grizzlies covet. His offensive game is pretty limited, though he is suprisingly effective for his size when inside. Finally he can hit a spot-up jumper out to 15 feet. The Grizzlies may make a play for him, and may be the team that overpays, though its likely that they'll underbid for his services similar to Josh Smith last year to error on the side of caution. The Knicks like his sign-and-trade prospects anyhow, so they might sign him solely for that purpose.

Milsap is severely undersized, but makes up for it with his tenacity and strength. He wouldn't fit well with the Grizzlies, however, because they don't have the pure point to set him up. Some, however, consider Milsap a near All-Star talent with room to grow his already reasonable abilities. But honestly Milsap is better suited to being a backup or 30 minute per game starter, which could work nicely for the Grizzlies with their depth of acceptable PFs and with Hakim Warrick as a 6th man. It's going to be difficult to make a large investment in Milsap, who may or may not have had flukey production. They may take a look, but OKC remains interested and the Jazz seem to want to re-sign him. He will be overpaid at around 10 million a year, though it very well could be by the Grizzlies.

Charlie V is basically a less athletic, but slightly taller Rudy Gay; meaning he plays a bit better in the post, but dunks less, and still doesn't defend or rebound. He is exciting and can really fill the board, however, and has something like Rashard Lewis-esque potential. If you are willing to pay well over the MLE for him, then you will be able to steal him for the many playoff contenders interested in his abilities. Still 7 to 8 million a year wouldn't be an unfair price for Villenueva, and the Grizzlies could look to build around Thabeet similar to how the Magic built around Dwight Howard. A possibility for sure, especially since he and Rudy Gay often refer to each other as "suitemates for life" on Twitter.

Finally Andersen Varajeo seems to be an option, but he is really not what the Grizzlies are looking for at this point. He needs 4 scorers around him, and his offensive game is about as limited as Thabeets. While he is a good team defender and agitator, much like Milsap he is better suited to be a short minute starter, which won't interest the fiscally challenged Grizzlies for 7-8 million dollars a year.

Ultimately none of these options are thrilling whatsoever. I expect the Grizzlies will resign Warrick, as they consider his contributions as a 6th man a key member of their "young core." These players, however, aren't enough to take the cash and time away from their younger 4's. If anything does happen for the Grizzlies at the 4 spot, it's likely to be a trade for Amare Stoudamire in a Suns salary dump, who has the superstar abilities they covet, though that is a conversation for another thread.

The free agents at both positions of need aren't exceptional options for the Grizzlies, and in the end they will be more likely to improve via trade than via free agency. I expect them to sign someone who will see minutes at backing up Conley, but otherwise they're likely to reserve their cap space for a superstar to fall into their lap to replace the one they gave away.

Of Less Pressing Need

2009-06-29T21:42:00.006-04:00

We've already been over the Grizzlies most marquee selection, Hasheem Thabeet (I'd link but it's only one post down), but the Grizzlies made some other acquisitions of merit in last week's draft. Tonight I'll give a run down on these three players, and what they might mean for the direction of the team. They will be ranked based on merit. Somehow Quentin Richardson still makes this page, if for no reason other than how silly and absurd it would be to leave him off when Marko Jaric is still on the team.

Sam Young: Coming from Pitt's #1 seeded college basketball team, Sam Young was a senior selection. He is 24 years old and, as is often the case with old players, boasts a refined game for a draft pick despite relatively limited athleticism. Not that Young is unathletic, but he's not the elite athlete teams oftentimes search for in the era of "upside." He is big and quick enough to play against any wing in the league, and can log minutes against opponent 4's as well, despite being more likely to play offense as a wing even while defending a big man. A former Grizzly, a younger James Posey (before he vastly improved his 3-point shooting), is an excellent comparison for Sam Young.

Young's main flaw is his isolation abilities. He has great ball fakes, but as DraftExpress points out, only converts on 30% of his isolation possessions. This is mostly because he has poor handles and doesn't pull up very well. Most 5th starters or role players don't do this well. This shortcoming is relatively meaningless in the 2nd round. Young shows potential to easily be the best return on pick value in this draft, as he could be starting next to Rudy this season depending on how the Grizzlies logjam at the 4 works out.

DeMarre Carroll: Three double letters in the name is always a good sign. Drafting an almost guaranteed 2nd rounder late in the first is almost never a good sign, but in this case wasn't a terrible move. By no stretch of the imagination is Carroll a great player, but he is a high energy guy who contributed to his Mizzou team very consistently with around 17 ppg, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and solid defensive statistics. His toughness and energy are obviously calling cards, but DeMarre does have suprisingly acceptable handles and shooting as well. He is often compared to Renaldo Balkman, but this is partially because of his similar looks. In reality Carroll is more skilled and confident on offense, though he has every bit of Balkman's energy and defense.

Of course he is far from ready to be a wing at the NBA level, unless he somehow adapts to the Sean Marion model of the position, which namely involves finishing, tenacious defense, and rebounding. Still this is not an altogether likely role for Carroll, probably as best-case as it gets, as he lacks the athleticism and may not have the necessary skills multi-positional skills. DeMarre Carroll won't be contributing effectively anytime soon, and fulfills a role the Grizzlies now have a glut of, but was still a decent value pick and will push everyone in practice and add a swagger and toughness the Grizzlies often lack on defense.

Quentin Richardson: With Thabeet, Marc Gasol, Haddadi, Arthur, and Carrol all at PF and center, the Grizzlies couldn't give Darko the minutes he needed. As a result they moved his expiring contract for Quentin Richardson and his expiring contract, which is mostly equal. Q-Rich is a high volume shooter who is either on or off on the night, and usually takes somewhere between 5-7 contested 3's before he decides whether he should be shooting that night. Really a drain on any coach and the minutes the Grizzlies could be giving to younger, developing players. We already know that Quentin is terrible, there is no point in keeping him around or giving him time. I would much rather see an undrafted project logging minutes at the two, namely Paul Harris, then this trainwreck. He MIGHT be better than Jaric, but even that assertion is questionable at best; at least Jaric can pass and is goofy looking...Wait, Richardson is even more goofy looking and wears a headband? And dated Brandy? This trade is looking better by the minute, besides when you consider the fact that Darko is still younger than two players we drafted this year.

Tomorrow, a morotorium for Darko, and any other Grizzlies buzz.

The Fallout

2009-06-28T23:24:00.003-04:00

So it's three days past draft day. The Grizzlies have acquired Hasheem Thabeet, Sam Young, DeMarre Carroll, and Quentin Richardson. Hasheem was taken with the #2 overall, a move that I've advocated against from the start, Young and Carroll came in the early second and late first, respectively. Finally Q-Rich was traded to the Grizzlies in a straight-up swap for Darko Milicic. Obviously it was a big day in terms of aquisitions, so with a few days of mulling under my belt I'm going to dive in and make a few conjectures about each of these.

#2- Hasheem Thabeet- You can't be serious. Look I don't mind Thabeet, he is an interesting prospect. But, as I've noted before, this kid will not be blocking 4 shots a game in the NBA. If he blocks two shots a game then you saved, maybe, 4 points. Guess how many points you're losing on the other end with his terrible offense? I don't know exactly, but I'm assuming close to six. And that's not even considering the fact that he plays awful one-on-one post defense.

Instead of Thabeet the Grizzlies could have drafted Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, Jordan Hill, or Stephen Curry. Or they could have traded down and gotten Terrence Williams or Brandon Jennings. Mark my words, every one of these players will have a better career than Hasheem.

Worse yet, if the Grizzlies really were convinced that they needed a defensive stalwart or shotblocker, why not trade to acquire one once free agency starts. Tyson Chandler is obviously available, Samuel Dalembert is free if you take his contract, Tyrus Thomas is being shopped, Camby is out there (albeit for a decent price). The idea of a Tyson Chandler's 10-9-2 blocks being more valuable then the numbers has, in many ways, fallen apart in the past year or so. Every competitive team jumpshoots well enough to nuetralize that advantage. Think of this playoffs, even Dwight, the most dominant shotblocker in the league, didn't really make mark on any series with this skill. The only effective shotblocker this postseason was Chris Anderson, and that has more to do with the persona and swag then the block itself.

Worst yet, the Grizzlies appear to have turned down some very fair offers for their pick. We'll discuss Randolph tommorrow with the Darko-Richardson trade, so let's focus on the number 2 pick for now.

First the Suns offered Amare Stoudamire for Rudy Gay and the number 2 pick. This trade would have been suicidal, namely because Stoudamire is in the final year of his contract. If they had lost Gay and a player who will hopefully be a better than average NBA starter for Amare, who then might have fled the next year, the franchise would be set back close to two years in rebuilding. A lineup of Conley, Mayo, Buckner, Stoudamire, Gasol wouldn't have made the playoffs, so obviously we're not looking at a viable transaction here.

The killer was the second offer the Grizzlies received, Michael Beasley for the #2, apparently straight up. Beasley is now a proven commodity who provided excellent per minute production in his rookie campaign and is almost certain to grow a near All-Star caliber game. Yes, he comes with character and motivation questions (Zach Randolph was a trade target, the Grizz weren't actually worried about character), but growing with a young core would hopefully get him into better habits. How could you not pull the trigger on this? There is almost no chance that Thabeet ever contributes the kind of PER Beasley put up in his first season. Honestly, the consensus #1-2 in a very strong draft, versus the consensus #2-5 in a very weak draft. No question that the Grizzlies made a mistake on this one. Also Beasley fits the lineup better, as Gasol won't need to limit minutes at center to get him on the court. I hated this pick, which would have surrounded Gasol and Darko with 4 very young and effective scorers who can all shoot from anywhere on the court. Additionally, Beasley would have provided a third electric finisher to pair with Warrick or Gay. Unquestionably the failure of the day.

Wow, this was really upsetting. I'm still shocked and appalled.

It Happened

2009-06-25T19:46:00.004-04:00

Well this was upsetting...

Although Timberwolves may swing Tyreke Evans and Kevin Love for him. We can always pray I suppose.

Update: Tyreke Evans is not on the Timberwolves. Looks like we will almost certainly be keeping Thabeet, which is somewhat upsetting. So it goes I suppose, at least he's pleasant and well dressed.

Update #2: Love the rest of the draft, and have reconciled Thabeet if Marc can play power forward. Also Chris Wallace was pleasant on television, and Sam Young was impaled through his entire bicep in a workout so badly that he hung from the vertical leap measuring apparatus. I don't know what that says about his coachability, but he didn't cry, so we're talking about one tough bastard.

Wait for it...

2009-06-25T19:41:00.003-04:00

Oh lord, it's happening...No Thabeet, no Thabeet, no Thabeet...

Also Vince Carter to Magic, love it, but they need one more guy, an athletic small forward, not a swingman, to play defense with enough range to hit the three for around the MLE. Ironically the Cavs need the same exact player.

Muddy Waters

2009-06-25T09:53:00.001-04:00

"Just because the Grizzlies are thinking big on the eve of this year's NBA draft doesn't mean they've settled on using the No. 2 overall pick to select 7-3 center Hasheem Thabeet. Or any player, for that matter. The Griz are just as likely to trade the pick — and it appears that is their preference. Exercising the second pick — almost certainly on Thabeet — in Thursday's draft will be Plan B, given how much the team's decision-makers have focused on trade scenarios involving up to five teams. 'The water still is a little muddy,' general manager Chris Wallace said. 'There are a lot of contingencies to go over before the draft.' The Grizzlies' goal has been twofold: acquire a proven NBA player or two and move down in the draft with former University of Memphis guard Tyreke Evans, Davidson's Stephen Curry or Arizona State's James Harden as targets. Memphis believes it can best maximize this high lottery position by coming away with multiple players who are ready to contribute."

Ronald Tillery, Memphis Commercial Appeal

I'm beginning to worry. Also new news is Quentin Richardson for Darko Milicic. What's the point? A bad big is worth more than an awful wing. I would try to get at least a round two pick in this trade, especially because I don't know that it saves any money. At least Darko doesn't get in the way of his young teammates, Q-Rich is a high-volume chucker who has no idea how to win. And there were rumors Darko was retiring and moving back to Russian or Serbian leagues. I need to know the wisdom behind this trade.

Ezekiel

2009-06-25T01:22:00.002-04:00

I know people are watching, feel free to leave comments. I ache for legitimacy.

Also check me out at: www.thegoodpoint.com

Big Sleep

2009-06-24T20:33:00.003-04:00

No trade for the #2 yet.

Remember, if the trade doesn't go through before noon tomorrow, the Grizzlies will still hold the pick through the draft and be picking for another team. News of the trade may or may not leak prior to their pick in the draft. In other words fans, wander around in the dark a little bit, you'll probably find something and the Grizzlies will flashlight it later in the night.

Around the league:

Mavs and Portland made a trade that probably means absolutely nothing.

The Warriors probably traded Jamal Crawford to the Hawks. I'm convinced this will benefit the Hawks because it gives them the most talented and frightening 6th man in the league. Never mind the loss of chemistry and inability of Crawford to facilitate, the Hawks already have no chemistry to loss. Anyhow Johnson needed serious help and the Hawks really had no player who could create an acceptable shot, now Crawford can fill that role. Smith can't fill this role no matter how much better he gets, and Horford is too far out of position to take over. Still the Hawks don't get better unless they keep Bibby for much cheaper and resign Zaza. A big wing in the draft to play backup might help as well, since Childress doesn't seem to be coming back.

Let There Be Life

2009-06-23T21:26:00.003-04:00

Three trades rumored to be done deals today, none of which really effect the Grizzlies, but two could have some meanings in their offseason.

First: Spurs deal Oberto, Bowen, Kurt Thomas to Bucks for Richard Jefferson.

Could be a nice deal for the Spurs, although they're looking awfully thin. This front office has gambled successfully on getting rookies who can contribute out of deep in the first round before, however, they do lose veteran contributors. Still I like the extra scoring, especially since the Spurs have can't drop 70 with one of the big three injured.

The Bucks gain nothing but the ability to resign Sessions or Villanueva. And if they don't choose Charlie V. his Twitter buddy and self-proclaimed "suite-mate for life" might entice him to come play for the Grizzlies. He would certainly fill a gap at the 4, and would provide an exceptionally dynamic foil for the equally dynamic Rudy Gay. No defense, but the Grizzlies really need to sort things out on the offensive end first with Hollins vision of effective basketball.

Second: Bucks send Oberto to the Pistons for Amir Johnson.

No denying that Johnson has serious talent; he could be Birdman-like with his athleticism and has the attitude and swagger as well. But he's also very unpolished. I like this deal, however, for the Pistons as well because they will be looking for a full sized backup center with experience after retooling. And cap space in 2010, which is always good.

I don't see any reason to consider this meaningful for Grizzlies fans, and probably not for Bucks or Pistons fans either.

Third: Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Oleskiy Pecherov, the 5th overall pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller.

Love this trade for the Wizards. Foye has some skills left to develop, and will be a great foil for Agent Zero. He can catch and shoot off screens, and has enough handles to take over the majority of offensive responsibilities while Gil is on the bench. Nick Young will also pick up plenty of minutes at the two, allowing Foye to fulfill this role as a combo guard at these times. Miller is a better than acceptable 6th man as well; he is an excellent shooter and facilitator. Even without Arenas, as the Wiz have been the past two seasons, I think this squad could pull together a season comparable to Philly or Chicago's last year.

The Wolves get even younger, can draft a whole new backcourt or take a small forward and hope Telfair-Evans (likely at this point) will get them by until a better option comes up. This trade killed any playoff hopes, but might be great for their future.

OR, the Timberwolves could trade the Wizards #5 and one of their other top 20 picks (likely the #6) to the Grizzlies for the #2 and some basketball value. This would be THE COUP for the Grizzlies and bail them out of the conundrum that is the #2 pick for the Grizzlies. With #5 and #6 they can likely take Jordan Hill and Tyreke Evans, which should be a very impressive young six man rotation.

Kevin Love just tweeted that more trades are coming. Could this be it?

More Draft Day Buildup

2009-06-23T00:10:00.002-04:00

No real new substantial rumors from Memphis's camp. Although two things have become abundantly clear: the Grizzlies are trying their hardest to move this pick, and it's apparently not that easy to move the #2 pick for a reasonable value.

For as enamored as the Association was with Rubio only a few months ago, today teams seem to be somewhat skeptical (at best) about the Spanish point guard. Personally, I think Rubio is certainly the second best player in the draft. And you have to take the best value in this draft. While Stephen Curry waxed poetic about Jennings style and the Kings aren't sure about Rubio at #4, he is almost certainly the best trade bait out there.

Lets consider the teams that could be interested in Thabeet:

OKC- Would take Rubio or Harden as a consolation prize at #3. They would potentially take these guys over Thabeet anyhow, as it seems very likely that Dalemert, Kaman, or Camby will be very available this offseason. All three of this players will contribute more than Thabeet for at least a couple years, and are likely less valuable than a top 5 pick even in this draft.

ATL- If Zaza leaves they might be looking for a center. They will be looking for a point guard at least as much though, and probably don't have much to offer via trade anyhow since (contrary to previous rumors) their core is going nowhere.

DET- Again, if Sheed leaves they need a center. They need a point guard more, and would love Rubio's ability to put fans in the stands.

HOU- Darkhorse here after Dike's injury, although I don't know how Thabeet will fair with Morey's stats. Nothing rumored, but within the realm of possibility. They don't really have anyone to trade, however, as Landry and Scola seem to be favorites.

NYK- OK. Well Chandler isn't moving and not useful to the Grizzlies, so not interesting. Plus they prefer Rubio I'm sure, despite lacking the pieces to move for him.

CHA- Perhaps, and Boris Diaw with the #12 would be an enticing offer. The only problem, however, is that Diaw has a massive contract.

PHI- Replace Sam Dalembert with an even less polished version of himself? And you would have to trade Dalembert, who the Grizzlies (hopefully) aren't interested in. Anyhow, Rubio would fetch more, even though this team doesn't seem interested in trading for either.

DAL- Seem to be more interested in Rubio, but Dampier needs a replacement at some point.

WIZ- Don't think so, sorry but Brendan Haywood is tolerable. They like Rubio too, he just doesn't like them.

Draft Rambles

2009-06-21T15:46:00.004-04:00

-Harden showed up on a workout for the Grizzlies and apparently shot terribly, but looked athletic enough, which is a plus. Still, I can't see the Grizzlies taking either he or Evans at #2, which is interesting because...

-Apparently the T-Wolves are crushing on both Rubio and Thabeet. In my opinion Kahn just wants to do something to prove that he can/will make moves to, hopefully, improve the team. Rumblings from Washington sound like the Wolves want to get the #5 from Washington, then swap that and their #6 into the Grizzlies #2. Obviously the Wolves are going to need to give up something of basketball value, and likely both their big expirings to get the #5 from the Wizards. These seems plausible, as Foye or Miller are both pure shooters who could pair well with the ball-dominating Arenas.

The question remains, however, would the Grizzlies need to give something back besides the #2 for the two picks? I think so, especially with the lack of star-power and relative depth of the draft it seems like the Wolves shouldn't be giving up two for one. But if they did pull it off, you would have to consider this the absolute best case scenario for the Grizzlies. With #5 and #6 they could get Jordan Hill, who seems to fit their needs, and Evans who could quickly become a fan favorite in the NCAA-centric city. If you had to give up Conley to secure those picks and perhaps another rotation player with some basketball value like a Ryan Gomes, then Jennings, Evans, and maybe even Rubio will all be there to replace Conley.

-Speaking of Jennings, I'm beginning to really buy into the hype. Check out Shoal's analysis over at FreeDarko for the Stephen Curry quote and some chat about potential vs. reality. In short Curry notes that Jennings is absolutely unpredictable and a constant blur on offense. He compares his knowledge of where to move around the court to Nash. Whereas Mike Conley seems to assert almost no leadership over the young squad, I could see Jennings newly learned professionalism and work-ethic really benefitting the clubhouse. His swagger and unique style should blend well with OJ and Rudy and really could be that 3rd piece.

-Finally, Paul Harris is THE PICK in the second round. Mark my words. A shooting guard with exceptional court vision, Ron Artest muscle-mass, and a 7-foot wingspan. Did I mention he is a high-flier as well. His handles and shooting aren't great, but those are teachable skills. Seeing the Nuggets use of Dahntay Jones this season, imagine that with rebounding and shot-blocking from a wing slot. Harris is going to be a player in less than two years.

The Fellowship

2009-06-18T00:13:00.005-04:00

ESPN The Mag dropped a veritable Memphis bomb today, actually giving Rudy Gay not one but two sentences in a recent article about the NBA Draft. The theme was, get ready to be shocked and appalled, "JOCKS TAKE OVER THE MAGAZINE!" I read it the first day mainly because of a cover shot of Maria Sharapova looking fine on the cover. Am I the only one that thought she was hotter before she got good? Cream of the crop players lose the looks because they get ripped. God Sharapova could kick D12 through a wall with those thighs.

In the feature where players were allowed to run a mock draft for their teams, Gay selected Hasheem Thabeet with the number 2 pick on the grounds that, "He's a husky." With the late first-rounder Gay picked DeJuan Summers on the grounds that "'He's from Baltimore, so you know he's tough!'" Of course it's impossible to know how serious Gay was picking Thabeet and Summers from the standpoint of actually improving the team, but I'm going to unfairly unpack his statements anyhow.

Let me begin by saying I love Gay; he's my favorite player on Memphis, and easily within my top 10 favorite players in the entire league. In fact his freewheeling, oftentimes borderline childish attitude is part of why I love Gay so much. He brings excellent spirit and excitement to the floor when he's having fun, and seems to have fun on the court more often than any other player in the league.

But honestly it's difficult to recommend his flippant attitude in a league where winners are most often cold-blooded killers. Kobe makes faces, Dwight Howard elbows opponents, LeBron's stare would put Eastwood to shame, and Chris Paul punches other players in the balls. All these players still have fun with the time is right; LBJ and D12 might joke around more than any other player in the league. Still they know when to turn on the killer instinct, and relish in the opportunity to do so on the world's biggest basketball stage. They enjoy goofing around, but they live to fiercly compete.

At this point it's unlikely that Gay will ever develop the understanding of how to merge these two mindset, which should never be in conflict. Crunch time on the court is time for explosive fury; the bench and locker room are places for comedy. It's something he's struggled with for his entire career, oftentimes disappearing even at UConn when he was oftentimes heads to tails the most skilled and tallest player on the floor.

But the Grizzlies need Gay to assert himself to fully reach potential. OJ Mayo is not Kobe Bryant; he cannot carry the team in crunch time yet. Moreover, the idea that even Kobe Bryant or LeBron can assume full closing duties is quickly becoming ridiculous. LBJ's Herculean heroics obviously took a toll on his energy levels through the playoffs, and the Lakers looked better when Kobe was open to facilitating in the fourth. Rudy has all the tools to be absolutely destructive in the 4th; he is an excellent 1-on-1 player, and can run the pick and roll in both the handling and screening roles. Finally consider most lower-tier teams dead in water in the off chance that Rudy drops one of his monster dunks. Simply put to be an effective #2 for the young, stoic Mayo, Gay must both keep his personality and style as a player who still loves to have fun, but has fun te most fun while winning.

Full disclosure: This post is all prep-work for the next, more substantial offering.

Whisperings From the Confederacy

2009-06-15T21:36:00.005-04:00

Rumors and team building are arguably my two favorite things in the whole world, besides slam dunks that is. Today, I bring you all three.

ESPN's Chad Ford, who plays poker with Western Conference GM's on Fridays and clubs with Eastern Conference presidents of operations on Tuesdays, dropped a rumor bomb today that is arguably far more interesting to me than anything about Big Shaqtus. The Hawks are apparently actively shopping Josh Smith, slam-dunk baron of the NBA, around the league. Ford notes that the Hawks need to sign Marvin Williams, Zaza Pachulia, and Mike Bibby this offseason, and apparently J-smoove's run-ins with coach Mike Woodson have put his head on the chopping block. Word has it he went Latrell Spreewell on Woodson routinely.

Apparently Smith's explosive temper is quite terrible, because he is signed to a pretty fair salary of $10 million a year, which is only increasing by a little less than one million every season. This seems to be a fair price for the rising star, who routinely makes the explosive plays that blow the roof off even a half-filled stadium. Also Bibby is likely taking a pay cut at least equivalent to Zaza and Marvin's increases, which will almost certainly total no more than 5 million a year. That is unless Marvin Williams gets a big contract extension, which would put them in even greater financial trouble for a far less impressive player.

If Chad Ford's tips are correct, however, Memphis certainly seems to be a plausible destination for Smith. Atlanta signed Smith against Memphis's offer sheet last season, so they clearly have shown interest in the past. Also the Hawks could save a lot more than J-smoove's 10 million by trading with the Grizzlies, which would likely involve the number 2 pick. They could take Rubio, who may be as much an entertainer as Smith, and fill their starting point guard role with a rookie contract. And if you do believe in ghosts, the Hawks are undoubtedly still haunted by missing on Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Getting the #2 from the Grizzlies would allow them to get another shot at a potential young, elite point guard.

For the Grizzlies Smith would provide an immensely valuable draw for fans, as he would complete a trinity of high-fliers that includes Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick. He also would round out what would become a very solid young starting lineup; one that would really only be short a tue center, which is a position that seems to be suprisingly available this offseason. For the number two and rights to Rubio, the Hawks could even be willing to include Zaza in a sign and trade. With Marc rocking around 28 minutes at center, and picking up 5-6 more for Smith at power forward, the Grizzlies could plug in Zaza for 20 minutes or so a night. Hakim could pick up the rest of the minutes on the front line, and Darrell Arthur could be used to acquire a quality veteran bench player or be given time to develop into an NBA rotation player.

Does this get the Grizzlies back into the playoffs? No. Probably not. But it provides them with a well rounded starting five, that would be better prepared than one with either Rubio, Hill, or Thabeet. This lineup wouldn't be great by any means, but all five players would grow together for years, and would be in position to grab a couple decent free agents next year with Jaric and Darko's expirings. And if the league shakes up half as much as expected that offseason, the Grizzlies would be in excellent position with a team that has both youth and chemistry.

Well, the chemistry is only if J-smoove can avoid choking Hollins out after he awards Rudy the team dunk contest championship.

Walk of a Champion

2009-06-15T00:22:00.002-04:00

New news today, the Memphis Grizzlies did not win the NBA Championship.

Additionally, it sounds like the Cavaliers are working hard to trade absolutely nothing to the Phoenix Suns for a Rent-a-Shaq. As a non-Cavaliers fan living in Ohio, I have really mixed feelings about this trade. Clearly Shaquille is going to really clutter the paint, which will mean LeBron will see significantly more pressure when driving into the interior. For Memphis this trade does have the slightest of ramifications, namely that if Shaq moves than Amare probably won't. Not that Amare was actually ever going to come to Memphis despite the "rumors" that were mainly based on the fact that Memphis had cap space. Another slight Grizzlies relation, the Suns trading Diesel for a wax Ben Wallace model and the chance to buy out Sasha "Basketball Frodo" Pavlovic's contract might actually be a more hateful dismantling than Memphis's free third best forward in the league giveaway.

In other news Rudy Gay mocked DJ Mbenga's looks on Twitter, but left Adam Morrison and Tyron Lue unscathed. He spelled Mbenga's name wrong also. Whatever.

And Charlie V told Rudy that they need to stay UConn fam and draft Thabeet at #2. All my hair is officially being pulled off my head right now; Charlie, now I know your pain, but I still can't sympathize with taking Thabeet.

Something more substantial on the way tomorrow. If anyone actually reads this, don't stop now.

The Rape Over

2009-06-13T12:57:00.004-04:00

Very little Grizzlies in the news today.

Brandon Jennings called Ricky Rubio all hype and attacked his per minute statistics, apparently unaware that there is something to be said for Rubio actually earning that playing time.

Shoals wrote an interesting piece about Ben Gordon over at The Baseline. Since so few teams can afford him I'm guessing the Grizzlies rumors will persist.

Apparently the Magic are considering getting themselves some luxury tax by going big for Hedo. No Turkish Delight to Memphis? Seems almost impossible that he would want to go back to a culture of losing.

Derrick Rose threw up some gang signs at a party, joining a prestigious group of 150 white girls who have profile pictures I laugh at on Facebook.

Biggest news though, Grizzlies still loving Thabeet at #2. Apparently they didn't get read my scathing criticism of his talents, despite getting pimped by Skeets over at Ball Don't Lie. Look out AOL Fanhouse, I'm coming for you.

This week will be dedicated to evaluating the players on the Grizzlies current roster, so watch for some cool shit.

Moving Along

2009-06-11T18:08:00.008-04:00

I've already shown the parallels between Rubio and the much maligned Steve Francis and don't know that the Grizzlies should draft him to keep him, but lets get a little deeper into the subject of the number two overall pick. Particularly the rumors of Thabeet as the #2 overall.

First, let me clarify one thing. Drafting Hasheem Thabeet would be a mistake for the Grizzlies. Thabeet isn't just poor on the offensive end; he is not going to be a particularly impressive one on one defender in the early stages of his career. Yes the kid is long, but no amount of length will allow him to dominate in the post, and he is likely horrendous at perimeter defense because he has never tried it before.

Outside of Yao and Shaq very few teams in the NBA use a "prototypical" center anymore. The vast majority use their center for setting screens, either to roll and hit the mid-range jumper or track the handler into the post. Some teams basically ignore their center on the offensive end, prefering to entrust their forwards and guards with the vast majority of possessions. Does anyone project Thabeet as being able to capably extend his defensive range to guard a Mehmet Okur or even Spencer Hawes, or hold his own against athletic freaks? No, and he would be only a bit better than average at stopping the few post-up centers left. Watch out Emeka Okafor, Memphis has your stopper in Hasheem Thabeet.

Lets face the music, his defensive experience mostly entails waiting in the paint for player with nowhere near NBA caliber athletic tools to jack up a bad layup. Yes Thabeet blocked a lot of shots, but the vast majority of them would have been bad shots anyhow. And he really struggled against offensively minded post players, particularly ones heavier and stronger than himself. In the NBA Thabeet will see small forwards heavier and stronger than himself, almost no center will be thinner than Thabeet, and most power forwards are larger. Of course UConn's center will size up eventually, but his presence will likely have no effect on Memphis's overall defensive ability initially. Marcus Camby was Defensive Player of the Year on the NBA's worst defensive team, and while he blocked a lot of shots they were oftentimes rather meaningless.

In fact lets consider if shotblocking is even that valuable? Remember that most blocked shots end up in the hands of the team that shot them, and would likely have been misses anyhow. While a Dwight Howard can change a game with his shotblocking simply because he can lock down the entire paint unless gameplanned against, guys like Camby (or Thabeet) on otherwise weak defenses normally don't deter attackers. Rather the offense allows them to get their blocks and attacks as usual. At most its going to slightly lower your FG%, but most blocks are significantly less meaningful than a turnover since again, you often get possession back, so NBA players learn to live with them. You would learn to live with seeing your shot swatted too if you played with 9 other dudes who play above the rim.

Rubio's steals, however, are a certain gamebreaker on defense. Steals normally equal easy offense, and, unlike shot blocks, are an assured change of possession. While its unwise to gamble on steals excessively, most Rubio scouting reports suggest that he just has excellent hands. Of course he gambles a bit, but so does Chris Paul. You can't fault him for that, after all steals are a function of attempting steals. A steal might not get the crowd pumped up like a big block, but the fastbreak dunks that ensue would actually fit Memphis's personnel better anyhow (since Rudy and Hak are both constant Dunk of the Night threats).

In other words, Rubio isn't just the top offensive option at pick #2, but even after adjusting his steals to NBA levels, might also be the best (impact) defensive player left on the board.

Three Ghosts: Part III

2009-06-03T00:10:00.008-04:00

The final ghost of the Brown Bears. Vancouver still shudders at his name, yet he now sits at the end of the bench for the Memphis Grizzlies. When he shows up to games that is. Of course I'm talking about Steve Francis, good ol' Stevie Franchise, a spirit so evident that his two million dollar contract is still a very material concern for Memphis. When you talk about the ghosts that still haunt the Grizz, Francis might not even apply. He is the living dead.

Turn the dial back to 1999; a short two years after the non-debacle that was missing on the Duncan dream. Unlike the pathetic 1997 draft, the class in 1999 was absolutely filled with can't miss prospects. Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Lamar Odom, Rip Hamilton, Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Ron Artest, Andre Kirilenko were all members. Not to mention decent role players like Wally Szczerbiak, Corey Maggette, and James Posey. Yet for some reason the Grizzlies settled upon Steve Francis, despite his claims that he would not play in Canada. This guy was so serious that he called out God's Will. Front office attempted to call his bluff, and they failed miserably.

They got back Dickerson, who was good until his body broke in just two seasons. They got a decrept Antoine Carr. And they got Brent Price, who happened to get the small half of the Price family talent wishbone. This truly was God's Will. Stevie Franchise summoned so much of divine power, and hate among the Canadian fanbase, that ticket sales plummetted to 0 for the entire season. He remains perhaps the most formative player in Grizzlies history without ever setting foot on the court.

It's not like the writing on the wall is far from home. In fact it sits squarely in the last seat on the end of the bench. The Steve Francis pain runs a deeper than we might expect from a team who drafted Mike Bibby the year prior. Memphis has never had a solid player at the point. They drafted Jamaal Tinsley, though he was spirited away prior to completely corrupting the culture of the point for the next thirty years. Then Marcus Banks was drafted and wisely traded away, albeit for nothing. Kyle Lowry was taken, finally developed into an excellent backup, and then traded away for the rights to an extra pick in a draft that is largely considered quite weak. All that is left is Mike Conley Jr., generally considered a stretch at the 4th overall pick. Under Hollins' faith, Conley seemed to mature the second half of last year, but is now largely being considered as trade bait. Conley was reportedly coveted by a couple teams at last year's deadline, most famously Portland, who were willing to double Memphis's number of Rudy Gays with Travis Outlaw.

Of course the reason to trade Conley is a hotshot kid who would be moving far from home, with serious flash and talent, and is the consensus #2 selection despite a strong crop of better proven guards. Here I'm talking about Ricky Rubio obviously, but you're forgiven if you thought I was reverting back to chatting about Francis.

Please look around you Grizzlies, the kid has said he doesn't want to come. The writing, the wall. Now there are two paths to recociliation here; one a dangerous, violent exorcism. The other a far simpler path, that could potentially get the Grizzlies enough pieces to compete in the Eastern Conference, which is an important first step towards competing in the Western Conference. These two paths are clear: the Grizz could easily move the #2 for some serious contributors. The point of this post is not in the details, I'll leave the trades opportunities to your imaginations for the next few days.

The point is that drafting Rubio is not a mystery of talent, we all know he is likely to be a playoff quality starter within 2 years. The mystery is deeper, and far more devastating than another pick who doesn't pan out. Here the Grizzlies have to fear attempting to get the Francis monkey off their back by attempting to beat it off, with the obvious risk of only doubling its rage. Instead the Grizz must consider just dealing with Stevie's specter passively, rather than putting themselves in an embarassing moment; again reminding the world of the demon that clings to the end of their bench.

Three Ghosts: Part II

2009-06-02T20:24:00.008-04:00

Dreams, not unlike spirits, are only half-realities. You can't drink from an oasis, nor can you win a championship behind the top stake in a draft lottery. The Vancouver Grizzlies were not even afforded this much comfort, however, when they should have at least had a shot at a pray to take a young Tim Duncan in 1997. Despite having the worst record in the league after their first season post-expansion, the Grizzlies were ineligible to enter a lottery that in featured The Big Fundamental as the widely accepted first overall pick.

You see the pain ran especially deep since the 1997 draft was horrifically poor. Only three players escaped that draft with respectable careers: Duncan, Billups, and McGrady. Of these three both Duncan and Billups were lost to the lottery, and a Grizzlies squad that needed immediate contributors couldn't afford to gamble on the high-schooler McGrady. One vastly underappreciated meme from this draft, all three of these players nicknames use the adjective big: The Big Fundamental, Mr. Big Shot, The Big Sleep. Strange, I know. This draft was so bad that, even historically speaking, taking Antonio Daniels at fourth overall has been one of Big '97s best selections.

"A Notoriously Bad Draft"

We all know Duncan's storyline from that day onward. Consummate professional, excellent teammate, vastly underappreciated leadership skills, incredible reliability, star performance with none of the distractions. While Kobe, Shaq, and even Air Canada might be better remembered in this era, Duncan was the truest franchise player. By my accounting since Timmy's selection the Spurs have never had a poor season, and have won 4 NBA championships. They might have been the evil empire. Duncan might be Emperor Pop's Vader. But as oppressive as the Spur's exacting style was, you have to admit that you wish your favorite team was the Spurs during the late 90s and early 2000s. I'm willing to make a concession here, and only one, to the Phoenix Suns.

Not suprisingly Duncan is also underappreciated as one spirit that certainly hangs heavy in the heads of the franchise. It's no secret that the Grizzlies have long lacked a true leader, and obviously haven't had a generational superstar of Duncan's calibre. The Grizzlies would have only had a one in four shot at the king of fundamentals even if they were eligible for the top pick, but not even having a chance to dream clearly shook the franchise. Rather than building an exceptional amount hype and potentially a dominant championship squad, Vancouver picked up a very acceptable backup combo guard.

Sure soon after Duncan the Reef came to Canada. But as an indirect result of losing out on this superstar, Vancouver is forced to reach for the much maligned Stevie Franchise, who essentially kills the franchise in the process. Reef was a great player, and allowed the Grizzlies access to Pau Gasol. Gasol was in some ways a bastard Duncan, he was a technically proficient power forward with enough size to take over at center. But obviously Gasol wasn't the leader or talent to take the Grizzlies to the championship. To the 193 Grizzlies fans left in Vancouver, losing Duncan likely also meant losing your team.

So here the Grizzlies are today in Memphis. With no culture of winning, no competitor or professional like Duncan, all faith is now in Mayo. In some ways Mayo could be recompensation for the ill-fated loss of Duncan. The Grizzlies "earned" the number three pick, which would have secured Mayo, but were knocked out of the top three by the Bulls unexpected ascendence into the top spot. But this time the Grizzlies cheated fate, trading up to snatch Mayo back from the Timberwolves. Not unlike Duncan, Mayo is considered the soft-spoken brand of warrior. He is a born winner, and even in blowouts you can clearly see his pain. His game is polished despite relatively limited athleticism, and he has incredible drive to improve without feeling a need to tout that drive.

Can Mayo ever deliver on the promise that Duncan might have? Obviously there is no answer. At times he appears looks like a future star, dueling Kobe heads up and defending like a ballhawk in meaningless losses. Other times he is less ballhawk, more borderline ballhog, not that anyone can blame him with their supporting cast. But if Mayo can become half the player, half the professional, and half the franchise Duncan eventually became, than his spirit may already be walking the path to spiritual rest.

Three Ghosts: Part I

2009-06-02T17:20:00.003-04:00

Now I'm no anthropologist, but by my understanding some cultures revere the spirits of their ancestors. They look to them for advice and wisdom, believing that their predecessors still inhabit the material world. Respecting your ancestors is an excellent way to gain wisdom, see into both the past and future, improve your kung-fu, and otherwise engage in a litany of holistic, self-improving activities. Your ancestors, when respected, are benevolent, kind, and generally quite pleasant to visit.

Obviously the Grizzlies have not respected their ancestors, because the spirits that hover around Memphis are ultimately nothing but terrifying. These ghosts come from Vancouver, which is arguably the most horrifically mismanaged and poorly conceived franchise in the history of sports, for reasons to be explained later. Each of these ghosts is one the Grizzlies past future-superstars, and each haunts the team to this day.

The first ghost, in chronological order from their respective importance, holds everyone's favorite NBA nickname; he is none other than Bryant "Big Country" Reeves. "Big Country" was the Grizzlies first ever draft pick. Appropriately a center during an era marked by dominant, large big men. Reeves couldn't have entered the NBA at a better time, right between the center era and the prodigious upside era. Here was a true seven footer with an excellent college career who also clearly showed some signs of the athletic ability that might allow him to continue improving. Signs included: shattering the glass on backboards, and being able to run at that weight. True to his nickname, Reeves was so earthy that he had never flown in a plane. He seemed the perfect center to anchor the abysmal Grizzlies, and would put up respectable enough numbers to earn a huge deal, only to get fat, injured, and retired soon thereafter.

Reeve's spirit still haunts a Grizzlies team that has never again found that primal, earthy strength in the paint that "Big Country" brought to the court. Last season both Iavaroni and Lionel Hollins lamented the lack of a strong force in the past so much that they were often forced to play Darko. Of course their plea really was nothing new to the franchise, who's last two notable big men were both All-Star caliber players but also were generally considered finesse players and only respectable low-post defenders. Shareef Abdur-Rahim was a crafty scorer and a master of the fake, especially considering his size. But Reef was a poor, disinterested defender, and especially lacked the ability to coordinate and strengthen the defense as a unit. Pau Gasol is a great scorer, and excellent at maximizing his ability to upset shot and get in defenders faces without fouling. But he is also the pariah for the "softness" of the near-champion Lakers.

Perhaps the greatest hope to dispel the ghost of "Big Country" is not in recruiting a new strong man, but rather the Association's general progression away from ball-dominating big men. Clearly today's NBA is beginning to embrace an attitude where you don't have to pound in the post, nor do you need the prototype center to bang in the post. These sorts of centers are really a dying breed in the NBA. Of course Yao is there, Brook Lopez shows promise, and Shaq still remains. But guys like Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert, and even Andrew Bynum are looking like disappointments at worst, and certainly no longer anchors of their teams.

The Grizzlies seem to have struck a balance in Marc Gasol, the larger, tougher, stronger Gasol brother. But While less technically skilled, at this point with Gay and Warrick as their only proven productive players at the forward slots the Grizzlies don't need technical skill. He's neither a seven footer nor an intimidator, and he doesn't have lethal footwork in the post. But he can stay tough in the post, and he can step out and hit a mid-range shot to space the floor. Marc will never fully please the spirit of "Big Country," but perhaps he won't need to in order to break the curse.